Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:DCI DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Abstract

We present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices, particularly with respect to the forecast of their trend movements up or down. Exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, we provide numerical analysis of concrete financial time series. In particular, after a brief r ́esum ́e of the existing literature on the subject, we consider the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Net- works (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks techniques. (Hernández-Nieves, E., Bartolomé del Canto, Á., Chamoso-Santos, P., Prieta-Pintado, F.D.L. and Corchado-Rodríguez, J.M., 2020, June. A machine learning platform for stock investment recommendation systems. In International Symposium on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence (pp. 303-313). Springer, Cham.) We evaluate DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DCI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Trading Signals
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

LON:DCI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DCI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DCI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:DCI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DCI DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

  1. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
  2. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
  3. An entity shall apply Prepayment Features with Negative Compensation (Amendments to IFRS 9) retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.30–7.2.34
  4. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DCI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for LON:DCI DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba1
Operational Risk 7879
Market Risk4871
Technical Analysis8677
Fundamental Analysis5651
Risk Unsystematic7174

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 856 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  2. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  5. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  7. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DCI stock?
A: LON:DCI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:DCI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes LON:DCI Stock.
Q: Is DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DOLPHIN CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DCI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DCI is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DCI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DCI is (n+4 weeks)

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