AC Investment Research

LON:FTF FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC Research Report

Outlook: FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 27 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. (Batra, R. and Daudpota, S.M., 2018, March. Integrating StockTwits with sentiment analysis for better prediction of stock price movement. In 2018 International Conference on Computing, Mathematics and Engineering Technologies (iCoMET) (pp. 1-5). IEEE.) We evaluate FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:FTF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. Nash Equilibria
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

LON:FTF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FTF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FTF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:FTF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:FTF FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC
Time series to forecast n: 27 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC

  1. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
  2. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period
  3. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  4. If the group of items does have offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of sales and expenses denominated in a foreign currency hedged together for foreign currency risk) then an entity shall present the hedging gains or losses in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. Consider, for example, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a net position of foreign currency sales of FC100 and foreign currency expenses of FC80 using a forward exchange contract for FC20. The gain or loss on the forward exchange contract that is reclassified from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss (when the net position affects profit or loss) shall be presented in a separate line item from the hedged sales and expenses. Moreover, if the sales occur in an earlier period than the expenses, the sales revenue is still measured at the spot exchange rate in accordance with IAS 21. The related hedging gain or loss is presented in a separate line item, so that profit or loss reflects the effect of hedging the net position, with a corresponding adjustment to the cash flow hedge reserve. When the hedged expenses affect profit or loss in a later period, the hedging gain or loss previously recognised in the cash flow hedge reserve on the sales is reclassified to profit or loss and presented as a separate line item from those that include the hedged expenses, which are measured at the spot exchange rate in accordance with IAS 21.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:FTF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

LON:FTF FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosBaa2B1
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

  1. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  4. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  5. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  6. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  7. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FTF stock?
A: LON:FTF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is LON:FTF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:FTF Stock.
Q: Is FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FORESIGHT ENTERPRISE VCT PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FTF stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:FTF is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FTF stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:FTF is (n+4 weeks)

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