Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:HGT HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

The study of financial markets has been addressed in many works during the last years. Different methods have been used in order to capture the non-linear behavior which is characteristic of these complex systems. The development of profitable strategies has been associated with the predictive character of the market movement, and special attention has been devoted to forecast the trends of financial markets. (Huynh, H.D., Dang, L.M. and Duong, D., 2017, December. A new model for stock price movements prediction using deep neural network. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Information and Communication Technology (pp. 57-62).) We evaluate HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HGT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. Investment Risk

LON:HGT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HGT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HGT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HGT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HGT HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC

  1. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  2. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
  3. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.
  4. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HGT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:HGT HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB1B2
Cash FlowBa1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 535 signals.

References

  1. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  2. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  4. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  5. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  6. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  7. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HGT stock?
A: LON:HGT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is LON:HGT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:HGT Stock.
Q: Is HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HG CAPITAL TRUST PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HGT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HGT is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HGT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HGT is (n+4 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.