LON:IGG IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC

IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC Research Report

Abstract

One decision in Stock Market can make huge impact on an investor's life. The stock market is a complex system and often covered in mystery, it is therefore, very difficult to analyze all the impacting factors before making a decision. In this research, we have tried to design a stock market prediction model which is based on different factors. We evaluate IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:IGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:IGG stock.

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Dominated Move
3. Probability Distribution

LON:IGG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:IGG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:IGG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:IGG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:IGG IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 04 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:IGG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC

1. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance
2. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
3. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.
4. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:IGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:IGG stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:IGG IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	47	37
Market Risk	90	72
Technical Analysis	82	62
Fundamental Analysis	62	36
Risk Unsystematic	53	73

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 567 signals.

References

1. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
2. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
3. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
4. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
5. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
6. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
7. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:IGG stock?
A: LON:IGG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is LON:IGG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:IGG Stock.
Q: Is IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:IGG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:IGG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:IGG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:IGG is (n+6 month)

Premium

• Live broadcast of expert trader insights
• Real-time stock market analysis
• Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
• Real-time updates
• In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login