Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:IMMO IMMOTION GROUP PLC (Forecast)

IMMOTION GROUP PLC Research Report

Summary

Stock prediction with data mining techniques is one of the most important issues in finance being investigated by researchers across the globe. Data mining techniques can be used extensively in the financial markets to help investors make qualitative decision. One of the techniques is artificial neural network (ANN). However, in the application of ANN for predicting the financial market the use of technical analysis variables for stock prediction is predominant. In this paper, we present a hybridized approach which combines the use of the variables of technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators for prediction of future price of stock in order to improve on the existing approaches. We evaluate IMMOTION GROUP PLC prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:IMMO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:IMMO stock.

Key Points

  1. Can machine learning predict?
  2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

LON:IMMO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider IMMOTION GROUP PLC Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:IMMO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:IMMO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:IMMO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:IMMO IMMOTION GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 02 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:IMMO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for IMMOTION GROUP PLC

  1. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
  2. For example, an entity hedges an exposure to Foreign Currency A using a currency derivative that references Foreign Currency B and Foreign Currencies A and B are pegged (ie their exchange rate is maintained within a band or at an exchange rate set by a central bank or other authority). If the exchange rate between Foreign Currency A and Foreign Currency B were changed (ie a new band or rate was set), rebalancing the hedging relationship to reflect the new exchange rate would ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet the hedge effectiveness requirement for the hedge ratio in the new circumstances. In contrast, if there was a default on the currency derivative, changing the hedge ratio could not ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet that hedge effectiveness requirement. Hence, rebalancing does not facilitate the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item changes in a way that cannot be compensated for by adjusting the hedge ratio
  3. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

IMMOTION GROUP PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:IMMO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:IMMO stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:IMMO IMMOTION GROUP PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Operational Risk 4164
Market Risk3974
Technical Analysis6787
Fundamental Analysis7783
Risk Unsystematic4251

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 455 signals.

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  2. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  3. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  5. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  6. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  7. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:IMMO stock?
A: LON:IMMO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:IMMO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:IMMO Stock.
Q: Is IMMOTION GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IMMOTION GROUP PLC is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:IMMO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:IMMO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:IMMO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:IMMO is (n+4 weeks)

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