Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:KYGA KERRY GROUP PLC (Forecast)

Outlook: KERRY GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system.(Chou, J.S. and Nguyen, T.K., 2018. Forward forecast of stock price using sliding-window metaheuristic-optimized machine-learning regression. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics, 14(7), pp.3132-3142.) We evaluate KERRY GROUP PLC prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KYGA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

LON:KYGA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider KERRY GROUP PLC Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:KYGA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:KYGA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:KYGA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:KYGA KERRY GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for KERRY GROUP PLC

  1. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.
  2. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
  3. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
  4. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

KERRY GROUP PLC assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:KYGA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for LON:KYGA KERRY GROUP PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B2
Operational Risk 6352
Market Risk7490
Technical Analysis7239
Fundamental Analysis7535
Risk Unsystematic6354

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 610 signals.

References

  1. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
  2. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  3. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  6. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  7. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:KYGA stock?
A: LON:KYGA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is LON:KYGA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:KYGA Stock.
Q: Is KERRY GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for KERRY GROUP PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:KYGA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:KYGA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:KYGA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:KYGA is (n+16 weeks)

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