MEDICA GROUP PLC Research Report

## Abstract

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We evaluate MEDICA GROUP PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MGP stock.

## Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

## LON:MGP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MEDICA GROUP PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:MGP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:MGP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:MGP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:MGP MEDICA GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 04 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MGP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for MEDICA GROUP PLC

1. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
2. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
3. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.
4. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

MEDICA GROUP PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:MGP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MGP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:MGP MEDICA GROUP PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 5581
Market Risk7848
Technical Analysis4184
Fundamental Analysis6684
Risk Unsystematic3965

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 685 signals.

## References

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4. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
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Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:MGP stock?
A: LON:MGP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:MGP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:MGP Stock.
Q: Is MEDICA GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MEDICA GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:MGP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:MGP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:MGP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:MGP is (n+16 weeks)