Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:NESF NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications.(Nelson, D.M., Pereira, A.C. and De Oliveira, R.A., 2017, May. Stock market's price movement prediction with LSTM neural networks. In 2017 International joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN) (pp. 1419-1426). Ieee.) We evaluate NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NESF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. How do you pick a stock?

LON:NESF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:NESF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:NESF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:NESF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:NESF NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 15 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  2. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  3. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  4. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NESF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for LON:NESF NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Operational Risk 3363
Market Risk5390
Technical Analysis8190
Fundamental Analysis4446
Risk Unsystematic8281

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 871 signals.

References

  1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  2. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  3. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  4. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  5. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  6. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  7. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:NESF stock?
A: LON:NESF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:NESF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NESF Stock.
Q: Is NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NEXTENERGY SOLAR FUND LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:NESF stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:NESF is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:NESF stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:NESF is (n+3 month)

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