NATWEST GROUP PLC Research Report

## Abstract

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted.(Kim, K.J. and Han, I., 2000. Genetic algorithms approach to feature discretization in artificial neural networks for the prediction of stock price index. Expert systems with Applications, 19(2), pp.125-132.) We evaluate NATWEST GROUP PLC prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NWG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NWG stock.

## Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. Dominated Move

## LON:NWG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NATWEST GROUP PLC Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:NWG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:NWG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:NWG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:NWG NATWEST GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NWG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for NATWEST GROUP PLC

1. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
2. Despite the requirement in paragraph 7.2.1, an entity that adopts the classification and measurement requirements of this Standard (which include the requirements related to amortised cost measurement for financial assets and impairment in Sections 5.4 and 5.5) shall provide the disclosures set out in paragraphs 42L–42O of IFRS 7 but need not restate prior periods. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application. However, if an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all of the requirements in this Standard. If an entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9 results in more than one date of initial application for different requirements, this paragraph applies at each date of initial application (see paragraph 7.2.2). This would be the case, for example, if an entity elects to early apply only the requirements for the presentation of gains and losses on financial liabilities designated as at fair value through profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 7.1.2 before applying the other requirements in this Standard.
3. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
4. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

NATWEST GROUP PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:NWG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NWG stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:NWG NATWEST GROUP PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 4673
Market Risk7242
Technical Analysis4972
Fundamental Analysis5744
Risk Unsystematic4363

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 663 signals.

## References

1. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
2. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
4. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
5. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
6. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:NWG stock?
A: LON:NWG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:NWG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:NWG Stock.
Q: Is NATWEST GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NATWEST GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:NWG stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:NWG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:NWG stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:NWG is (n+16 weeks)