Modelling A.I. in Economics

MAXR:TSX Maxar Technologies Inc. (Forecast)

Maxar Technologies Inc. Research Report

Summary

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. We evaluate Maxar Technologies Inc. prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MAXR:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MAXR:TSX stock.

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. Investment Risk

MAXR:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Maxar Technologies Inc. Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MAXR:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MAXR:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MAXR:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MAXR:TSX Maxar Technologies Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 01 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MAXR:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Maxar Technologies Inc.

  1. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  2. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.
  3. Lifetime expected credit losses are not recognised on a financial instrument simply because it was considered to have low credit risk in the previous reporting period and is not considered to have low credit risk at the reporting date. In such a case, an entity shall determine whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition and thus whether lifetime expected credit losses are required to be recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.5.3.
  4. Adjusting the hedge ratio by increasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the previously designated volume also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument also include the changes in the value of the additional volume of the hedging instrument. The changes are measured starting from, and by reference to, the date of rebalancing instead of the date on which the hedging relationship was designated. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and added a volume of 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedging instrument after rebalancing would comprise a total derivative volume of 110 tonnes. The change in the fair value of the hedging instrument is the total change in the fair value of the derivatives that make up the total volume of 110 tonnes. These derivatives could (and probably would) have different critical terms, such as their forward rates, because they were entered into at different points in time (including the possibility of designating derivatives into hedging relationships after their initial recognition).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Maxar Technologies Inc. assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MAXR:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MAXR:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for MAXR:TSX Maxar Technologies Inc. Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 7489
Market Risk4940
Technical Analysis3877
Fundamental Analysis7045
Risk Unsystematic7150

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 803 signals.

References

  1. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  3. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
  4. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  5. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  6. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  7. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MAXR:TSX stock?
A: MAXR:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is MAXR:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldBuy MAXR:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Maxar Technologies Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Maxar Technologies Inc. is HoldBuy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MAXR:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for MAXR:TSX is HoldBuy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MAXR:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for MAXR:TSX is (n+6 month)

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