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MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares

MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares Research Report

Summary

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MNSO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNSO stock.

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

MNSO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of MNSO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MNSO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MNSO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNSO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares

  1. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  2. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).
  4. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MNSO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNSO stock.

Financial State Forecast for MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 5649
Market Risk3285
Technical Analysis7143
Fundamental Analysis6434
Risk Unsystematic4072

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 679 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  3. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  4. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  5. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  6. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  7. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MNSO stock?
A: MNSO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is MNSO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy MNSO Stock.
Q: Is MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for MINISO Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing four Ordinary Shares is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MNSO stock?
A: The consensus rating for MNSO is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for MNSO stock?
A: The prediction period for MNSO is (n+1 year)

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