NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares

Outlook: National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

The classical linear multi-factor stock selection model is widely used for long-term stock price trend prediction. However, the stock market is chaotic, complex, and dynamic, for which reasons the linear model assumption may be unreasonable, and it is more meaningful to construct a better-integrated stock selection model based on different feature selection and nonlinear stock price trend prediction methods.(Hegazy, O., Soliman, O.S. and Salam, M.A., 2014. A machine learning model for stock market prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1402.7351.) We evaluate National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. Why do we need predictive models?
3. Reaction Function

NGG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NGG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NGG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NGG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 19 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares

1. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
2. An entity shall apply this Standard retrospectively, in accordance with IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.4–7.2.26 and 7.2.28. This Standard shall not be applied to items that have already been derecognised at the date of initial application.
3. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
4. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NGG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

NGG National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	C
Cash Flow	B3	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 490 signals.

References

1. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
2. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
3. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
5. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
6. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
7. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NGG stock?
A: NGG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is NGG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes NGG Stock.
Q: Is National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for National Grid Transco PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NGG stock?
A: The consensus rating for NGG is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for NGG stock?
A: The prediction period for NGG is (n+8 weeks)

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