NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Prediction of stock market is a long-time attractive topic to researchers from different fields. In particular, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the movement of stock market using machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and reinforcement learning. In this project, we propose a new prediction algorithm that exploits the temporal correlation among global stock markets and various financial products to predict the next-day stock trend.(Henrique, B.M., Sobreiro, V.A. and Kimura, H., 2019. Literature review: Machine learning techniques applied to financial market prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 124, pp.226-251.) We evaluate Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

NOC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NOC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NOC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NOC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 09 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock

1. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
2. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.
3. If, in applying paragraph 7.2.44, an entity reinstates a discontinued hedging relationship, the entity shall read references in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to the date the alternative benchmark rate is designated as a noncontractually specified risk component for the first time as referring to the date of initial application of these amendments (ie the 24-month period for that alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component begins from the date of initial application of these amendments).
4. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NOC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	39	49
Market Risk	80	39
Technical Analysis	90	90
Fundamental Analysis	51	35
Risk Unsystematic	72	87

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 586 signals.

References

1. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
2. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
3. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
4. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
5. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
6. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
7. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NOC stock?
A: NOC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is NOC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NOC Stock.
Q: Is Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Northrop Grumman Corporation Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NOC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NOC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NOC stock?
A: The prediction period for NOC is (n+8 weeks)

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