Modelling A.I. in Economics

NS^B Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests (Forecast)

Outlook: Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 12 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods(Umer, M., Awais, M. and Muzammul, M., 2019. Stock market prediction using machine learning (ML) algorithms. ADCAIJ: Advances in Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence Journal, 8(4), pp.97-116.) We evaluate Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NS^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Probability Distribution
  2. Game Theory
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

NS^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of NS^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NS^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NS^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NS^B Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests
Time series to forecast n: 12 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests

  1. A contractual cash flow characteristic does not affect the classification of the financial asset if it could have only a de minimis effect on the contractual cash flows of the financial asset. To make this determination, an entity must consider the possible effect of the contractual cash flow characteristic in each reporting period and cumulatively over the life of the financial instrument. In addition, if a contractual cash flow characteristic could have an effect on the contractual cash flows that is more than de minimis (either in a single reporting period or cumulatively) but that cash flow characteristic is not genuine, it does not affect the classification of a financial asset. A cash flow characteristic is not genuine if it affects the instrument's contractual cash flows only on the occurrence of an event that is extremely rare, highly abnormal and very unlikely to occur.
  2. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  3. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  4. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NS^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for NS^B Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 4037
Market Risk6189
Technical Analysis8572
Fundamental Analysis5270
Risk Unsystematic4772

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 581 signals.

References

  1. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
  4. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Matzkin RL. 2007. Nonparametric identification. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. J Heckman, E Learner, pp. 5307–68. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  7. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NS^B stock?
A: NS^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is NS^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NS^B Stock.
Q: Is Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nustar Energy L.P. 7.625% Series B Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NS^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for NS^B is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NS^B stock?
A: The prediction period for NS^B is (n+16 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.