AC Investment Research

NTB Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares Research Report

Outlook: Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted.(Yuan, X., Yuan, J., Jiang, T. and Ain, Q.U., 2020. Integrated long-term stock selection models based on feature selection and machine learning algorithms for China stock market. IEEE Access, 8, pp.22672-22685.) We evaluate Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NTB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Can statistics predict the future?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

NTB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of NTB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NTB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NTB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NTB Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares

  1. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.
  2. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
  3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
  4. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NTB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

NTB Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 513 signals.

References

  1. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  2. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  3. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is TPL a Buy?. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NTB stock?
A: NTB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is NTB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NTB Stock.
Q: Is Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited (The) Voting Ordinary Shares is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NTB stock?
A: The consensus rating for NTB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NTB stock?
A: The prediction period for NTB is (n+4 weeks)

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