NUF NUFARM LIMITED

Outlook: NUFARM LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. (Ampomah, E.K., Nyame, G., Qin, Z., Addo, P.C., Gyamfi, E.O. and Gyan, M., 2021. Stock market prediction with gaussian naïve bayes machine learning algorithm. Informatica, 45(2).) We evaluate NUFARM LIMITED prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NUF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

NUF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider NUFARM LIMITED Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NUF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NUF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NUF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NUF NUFARM LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for NUFARM LIMITED

1. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.
2. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
3. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
4. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

NUFARM LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NUF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for NUF NUFARM LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Operational Risk	68	86
Market Risk	51	47
Technical Analysis	85	41
Fundamental Analysis	78	75
Risk Unsystematic	50	76

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 465 signals.

References

1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
2. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
4. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
5. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
7. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NUF stock?
A: NUF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is NUF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes NUF Stock.
Q: Is NUFARM LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NUFARM LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NUF stock?
A: The consensus rating for NUF is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for NUF stock?
A: The prediction period for NUF is (n+1 year)

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