AC Investment Research

OLY OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED Research Report

Outlook: OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 29 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

We present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict stock market indices, particularly with respect to the forecast of their trend movements up or down. Exploiting different Neural Networks architectures, we provide numerical analysis of concrete financial time series. In particular, after a brief r ́esum ́e of the existing literature on the subject, we consider the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Convolutional Neural Net- works (CNN), and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks techniques. (Obthong, M., Tantisantiwong, N., Jeamwatthanachai, W. and Wills, G., 2020. A survey on machine learning for stock price prediction: algorithms and techniques.) We evaluate OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OLY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

OLY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of OLY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OLY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OLY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OLY OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 29 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED

  1. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
  2. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.
  3. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance
  4. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OLY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

OLY OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosCBa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 472 signals.

References

  1. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  2. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  3. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  4. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  7. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OLY stock?
A: OLY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is OLY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OLY Stock.
Q: Is OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for OLYMPIO METALS LIMITED is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OLY stock?
A: The consensus rating for OLY is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for OLY stock?
A: The prediction period for OLY is (n+4 weeks)

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