**Outlook:**Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Buy

**Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022**for (n+1 year)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods.(Dase, R.K. and Pawar, D.D., 2010. Application of Artificial Neural Network for stock market predictions: A review of literature. International Journal of Machine Intelligence, 2(2), pp.14-17.)** We evaluate Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the OTTR stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

## Key Points

- Can neural networks predict stock market?
- How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
- Trading Interaction

## OTTR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of OTTR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Logistic Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OTTR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## OTTR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**OTTR Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022**for (n+1 year)

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock

- An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
- If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.
- However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
- If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the OTTR stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

### Financial State Forecast for OTTR Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 77 | 55 |

Market Risk | 66 | 74 |

Technical Analysis | 78 | 44 |

Fundamental Analysis | 49 | 64 |

Risk Unsystematic | 79 | 35 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
- Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
- V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
- Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
- Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for OTTR stock?A: OTTR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression

Q: Is OTTR stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy OTTR Stock.

Q: Is Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Otter Tail Corporation Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of OTTR stock?

A: The consensus rating for OTTR is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for OTTR stock?

A: The prediction period for OTTR is (n+1 year)