Modelling A.I. in Economics

PAVM PAVmed Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: PAVmed Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Understanding the pattern of financial activities and predicting their development and changes are research hotspots in academic and financial circles. Because financial data contain complex, incomplete and fuzzy information, predicting their development trends is an extremely difficult challenge. Fluctuations in financial data depend on a myriad of correlated constantly changing factors. Therefore, predicting and analysing financial data are a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. Deep neural networks (DNNs) combine the advantages of deep learning (DL) and neural networks and can be used to solve nonlinear problems more satisfactorily compared to conventional machine learning algorithms.(Yu, P. and Yan, X., 2020. Stock price prediction based on deep neural networks. Neural Computing and Applications, 32(6), pp.1609-1628.) We evaluate PAVmed Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PAVM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

PAVM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PAVmed Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PAVM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PAVM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PAVM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PAVM PAVmed Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for PAVmed Inc. Common Stock

  1. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  2. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  3. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
  4. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

PAVmed Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PAVM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

PAVM PAVmed Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosB1C
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 466 signals.

References

  1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  3. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
  4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., MO Stock Price Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  5. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  6. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  7. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PAVM stock?
A: PAVM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is PAVM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PAVM Stock.
Q: Is PAVmed Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PAVmed Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PAVM stock?
A: The consensus rating for PAVM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PAVM stock?
A: The prediction period for PAVM is (n+16 weeks)

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