Modelling A.I. in Economics

PHK Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund (Forecast)

Outlook: Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction.(Hushani, P., 2019. Using autoregressive modelling and machine learning for stock market prediction and trading. In Third International Congress on Information and Communication Technology (pp. 767-774). Springer, Singapore.) We evaluate Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PHK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. Reaction Function
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

PHK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PHK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PHK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PHK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PHK Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund

  1. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  2. In some jurisdictions, the government or a regulatory authority sets interest rates. For example, such government regulation of interest rates may be part of a broad macroeconomic policy or it may be introduced to encourage entities to invest in a particular sector of the economy. In some of these cases, the objective of the time value of money element is not to provide consideration for only the passage of time. However, despite paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9D, a regulated interest rate shall be considered a proxy for the time value of money element for the purpose of applying the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) if that regulated interest rate provides consideration that is broadly consistent with the passage of time and does not provide exposure to risks or volatility in the contractual cash flows that are inconsistent with a basic lending arrangement.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  4. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PHK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for PHK Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba3
Operational Risk 7337
Market Risk7873
Technical Analysis8176
Fundamental Analysis4141
Risk Unsystematic7579

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 480 signals.

References

  1. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  2. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  3. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  4. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., What are buy sell or hold recommendations?(AIRC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PHK stock?
A: PHK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is PHK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PHK Stock.
Q: Is Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Pimco High Income Fund Pimco High Income Fund is Buy and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PHK stock?
A: The consensus rating for PHK is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PHK stock?
A: The prediction period for PHK is (n+1 year)

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