PUMP ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock

Outlook: ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Abstract

One decision in Stock Market can make huge impact on an investor's life. The stock market is a complex system and often covered in mystery, it is therefore, very difficult to analyze all the impacting factors before making a decision. In this research, we have tried to design a stock market prediction model which is based on different factors. (Chen, W., Zhang, H., Mehlawat, M.K. and Jia, L., 2021. Mean–variance portfolio optimization using machine learning-based stock price prediction. Applied Soft Computing, 100, p.106943.) We evaluate ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PUMP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Game Theory
2. Nash Equilibria
3. Decision Making

PUMP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PUMP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PUMP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PUMP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PUMP ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock

1. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.
2. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
3. The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.
4. For example, an entity hedges an exposure to Foreign Currency A using a currency derivative that references Foreign Currency B and Foreign Currencies A and B are pegged (ie their exchange rate is maintained within a band or at an exchange rate set by a central bank or other authority). If the exchange rate between Foreign Currency A and Foreign Currency B were changed (ie a new band or rate was set), rebalancing the hedging relationship to reflect the new exchange rate would ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet the hedge effectiveness requirement for the hedge ratio in the new circumstances. In contrast, if there was a default on the currency derivative, changing the hedge ratio could not ensure that the hedging relationship would continue to meet that hedge effectiveness requirement. Hence, rebalancing does not facilitate the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item changes in a way that cannot be compensated for by adjusting the hedge ratio

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PUMP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for PUMP ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B1
Operational Risk	86	35
Market Risk	62	80
Technical Analysis	30	56
Fundamental Analysis	31	88
Risk Unsystematic	36	39

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 851 signals.

References

1. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
2. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
4. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
5. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
6. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PUMP stock?
A: PUMP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is PUMP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes PUMP Stock.
Q: Is ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ProPetro Holding Corp. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PUMP stock?
A: The consensus rating for PUMP is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for PUMP stock?
A: The prediction period for PUMP is (n+1 year)

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