Outlook: QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction.(Moghar, A. and Hamiche, M., 2020. Stock market prediction using LSTM recurrent neural network. Procedia Computer Science, 170, pp.1168-1173.) We evaluate QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the QBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
3. Market Outlook

## QBE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of QBE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of QBE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## QBE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

1. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.
2. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard
3. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.
4. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the QBE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### Financial State Forecast for QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 7540
Market Risk8365
Technical Analysis8379
Fundamental Analysis5180
Risk Unsystematic4571

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 859 signals.

## References

1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
2. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
3. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
4. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
5. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
6. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
7. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for QBE stock?
A: QBE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is QBE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell QBE Stock.
Q: Is QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of QBE stock?
A: The consensus rating for QBE is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for QBE stock?
A: The prediction period for QBE is (n+1 year)