Modelling A.I. in Economics

RC Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock (Forecast)

Buy

Hold

Sell

Speculative

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Outlook: Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

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Abstract

Stock markets are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors at both local and global levels. The key to successful stock market forecasting is achieving best results with minimum required input data. To determine the set of relevant factors for making accurate predictions is a complicated task and so regular stock market analysis is very essential. More specifically, the stock market's movements are analyzed and predicted in order to retrieve knowledge that could guide investors on when to buy and sell.(Mehtab, S. and Sen, J., 2020. A time series analysis-based stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning models. arXiv preprint arXiv:2004.11697.) We evaluate Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes RC stock.

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  3. Can machine learning predict?

RC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of RC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RC Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes RC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock

  1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  2. The risk of a default occurring on financial instruments that have comparable credit risk is higher the longer the expected life of the instrument; for example, the risk of a default occurring on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of 10 years is higher than that on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of five years.
  3. Measurement of a financial asset or financial liability and classification of recognised changes in its value are determined by the item's classification and whether the item is part of a designated hedging relationship. Those requirements can create a measurement or recognition inconsistency (sometimes referred to as an 'accounting mismatch') when, for example, in the absence of designation as at fair value through profit or loss, a financial asset would be classified as subsequently measured at fair value through profit or loss and a liability the entity considers related would be subsequently measured at amortised cost (with changes in fair value not recognised). In such circumstances, an entity may conclude that its financial statements would provide more relevant information if both the asset and the liability were measured as at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes RC stock.

Financial State Forecast for RC Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Caa1
Operational Risk 7837
Market Risk8737
Technical Analysis8657
Fundamental Analysis5140
Risk Unsystematic5231

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 695 signals.

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
  2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  4. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Trading Signals (WTS Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  7. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for RC stock?
A: RC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is RC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes RC Stock.
Q: Is Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ready Capital Corproation Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Caa1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RC stock?
A: The consensus rating for RC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for RC stock?
A: The prediction period for RC is (n+1 year)

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