**Outlook:**Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Buy

**Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022**for (n+6 month)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

This study presents financial network indicators that can be applied to global stock market investment strategies. We propose to design both undirected and directed volatility networks of global stock market based on simple pair-wise correlation and system-wide connectedness of stock date using a vector auto-regressive model.(Saad, E.W., Prokhorov, D.V. and Wunsch, D.C., 1998. Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks. IEEE Transactions on neural networks, 9(6), pp.1456-1470.)** We evaluate Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the RGLD stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

## Key Points

- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
- Market Signals
- Can neural networks predict stock market?

## RGLD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of RGLD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Multiple Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RGLD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## RGLD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**RGLD Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock

- When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
- A similar example of a non-financial item is a specific type of crude oil from a particular oil field that is priced off the relevant benchmark crude oil. If an entity sells that crude oil under a contract using a contractual pricing formula that sets the price per barrel at the benchmark crude oil price minus CU10 with a floor of CU15, the entity can designate as the hedged item the entire cash flow variability under the sales contract that is attributable to the change in the benchmark crude oil price. However, the entity cannot designate a component that is equal to the full change in the benchmark crude oil price. Hence, as long as the forward price (for each delivery) does not fall below CU25, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread). However, if the forward price for any delivery falls below CU25, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread).
- The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.
- If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the RGLD stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

### Financial State Forecast for RGLD Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Baa2 | Ba2 |

Operational Risk | 74 | 61 |

Market Risk | 88 | 64 |

Technical Analysis | 46 | 66 |

Fundamental Analysis | 74 | 61 |

Risk Unsystematic | 82 | 87 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
- Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
- Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
- M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
- J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
- Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
- Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for RGLD stock?A: RGLD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression

Q: Is RGLD stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RGLD Stock.

Q: Is Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Royal Gold Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of RGLD stock?

A: The consensus rating for RGLD is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for RGLD stock?

A: The prediction period for RGLD is (n+6 month)