Modelling A.I. in Economics

RRR REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD (Forecast)

Outlook: REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Understanding the pattern of financial activities and predicting their development and changes are research hotspots in academic and financial circles. Because financial data contain complex, incomplete and fuzzy information, predicting their development trends is an extremely difficult challenge. Fluctuations in financial data depend on a myriad of correlated constantly changing factors. Therefore, predicting and analysing financial data are a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. Deep neural networks (DNNs) combine the advantages of deep learning (DL) and neural networks and can be used to solve nonlinear problems more satisfactorily compared to conventional machine learning algorithms.(Mehtab, S., Sen, J. and Dutta, A., 2021. Stock price prediction using machine learning and LSTM-based deep learning models. In Symposium on Machine Learning and Metaheuristics Algorithms, and Applications (pp. 88-106). Springer, Singapore.) We evaluate REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RRR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?

RRR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of RRR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RRR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RRR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RRR REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD

  1. If the holder cannot assess the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 at initial recognition, the tranche must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. If the underlying pool of instruments can change after initial recognition in such a way that the pool may not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the tranche does not meet the conditions in paragraph B4.1.21 and must be measured at fair value through profit or loss. However, if the underlying pool includes instruments that are collateralised by assets that do not meet the conditions in paragraphs B4.1.23–B4.1.24, the ability to take possession of such assets shall be disregarded for the purposes of applying this paragraph unless the entity acquired the tranche with the intention of controlling the collateral.
  2. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
  3. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.
  4. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RRR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for RRR REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Operational Risk 3741
Market Risk3945
Technical Analysis6660
Fundamental Analysis7285
Risk Unsystematic5356

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 658 signals.

References

  1. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  2. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  3. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Trading Signals (WTS Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  5. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  6. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  7. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for RRR stock?
A: RRR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is RRR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RRR Stock.
Q: Is REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS LTD is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RRR stock?
A: The consensus rating for RRR is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for RRR stock?
A: The prediction period for RRR is (n+6 month)

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