SILK Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Three networks are compared for low false alarm stock trend predictions. Short-term trends, particularly attractive for neural network analysis, can be used profitably in scenarios such as option trading, but only with significant risk. Therefore, we focus on limiting false alarms, which improves the risk/reward ratio by preventing losses. To predict stock trends, we exploit time delay, recurrent, and probabilistic neural networks (TDNN, RNN, and PNN, respectively), utilizing conjugate gradient and multistream extended Kalman filter training for TDNN and RNN.(Kim, S., Ku, S., Chang, W. and Song, J.W., 2020. Predicting the direction of US stock prices using effective transfer entropy and machine learning techniques. IEEE Access, 8, pp.111660-111682.) We evaluate Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SILK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SILK stock.

Key Points

1. Operational Risk
2. Investment Risk
3. Decision Making

SILK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SILK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SILK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SILK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SILK Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SILK stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock

1. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
2. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
3. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
4. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SILK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SILK stock.

Financial State Forecast for SILK Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Baa2
Operational Risk	71	79
Market Risk	70	73
Technical Analysis	75	61
Fundamental Analysis	59	73
Risk Unsystematic	70	81

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 803 signals.

References

1. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
2. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
3. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
4. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold FTNT Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
7. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SILK stock?
A: SILK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is SILK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SILK Stock.
Q: Is Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Silk Road Medical Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SILK stock?
A: The consensus rating for SILK is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SILK stock?
A: The prediction period for SILK is (n+6 month)

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