Modelling A.I. in Economics

SLB STELAR METALS LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: STELAR METALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in the use of machine learning to help aid in the accurate predictions of financial markets. Despite the exciting advances in this cross-section of finance and AI, many of the current approaches are limited to using technical analysis to capture historical trends of each stock price and thus limited to certain experimental setups to obtain good prediction results. On the other hand, professional investors additionally use their rich knowledge of inter-market and inter-company relations to map the connectivity of companies and events, and use this map to make better market predictions. For instance, they would predict the movement of a certain company's stock price based not only on its former stock price trends but also on the performance of its suppliers or customers, the overall industry, macroeconomic factors and trade policies. This paper investigates the effectiveness of work at the intersection of market predictions and graph neural networks, which hold the potential to mimic the ways in which investors make decisions by incorporating company knowledge graphs directly into the predictive model.(Kanade, P.A., Singh, S., Rajoria, S., Veer, P. and Wandile, N., 2020. Machine learning model for stock market prediction. International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, 8(6), pp.209-216.) We evaluate STELAR METALS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SLB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

SLB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider STELAR METALS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SLB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SLB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SLB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SLB STELAR METALS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for STELAR METALS LIMITED

  1. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.
  2. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.
  3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
  4. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

STELAR METALS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SLB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

SLB STELAR METALS LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetB1C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 602 signals.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  3. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  4. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you know when a stock will go up or down?(STJ Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  7. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SLB stock?
A: SLB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is SLB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SLB Stock.
Q: Is STELAR METALS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for STELAR METALS LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SLB stock?
A: The consensus rating for SLB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SLB stock?
A: The prediction period for SLB is (n+3 month)

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