Outlook: Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

## Abstract

Accurate stock market prediction is of great interest to investors; however, stock markets are driven by volatile factors such as microblogs and news that make it hard to predict stock market index based on merely the historical data. The enormous stock market volatility emphasizes the need to effectively assess the role of external factors in stock prediction. Stock markets can be predicted using machine learning algorithms on information contained in social media and financial news, as this data can change investors' behavior.(Siew, H.L. and Nordin, M.J., 2012, September. Regression techniques for the prediction of stock price trend. In 2012 International Conference on Statistics in Science, Business and Engineering (ICSSBE) (pp. 1-5). IEEE.) We evaluate Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SPE^C stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SPE^C stock.

## Key Points

1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
2. Prediction Modeling
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

## SPE^C Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SPE^C stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n a i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SPE^C stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## SPE^C Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SPE^C Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SPE^C stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C

1. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
2. The risk of a default occurring on financial instruments that have comparable credit risk is higher the longer the expected life of the instrument; for example, the risk of a default occurring on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of 10 years is higher than that on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of five years.
3. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
4. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SPE^C stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SPE^C stock.

### Financial State Forecast for SPE^C Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 8477
Market Risk3585
Technical Analysis5559
Fundamental Analysis7066
Risk Unsystematic8458

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 832 signals.

## References

1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
2. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
3. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
4. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
5. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is TPL a Buy?. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
7. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SPE^C stock?
A: SPE^C stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is SPE^C stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SPE^C Stock.
Q: Is Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Special Opportunities Fund Inc. 2.75% Convertible Preferred Stock Series C is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SPE^C stock?
A: The consensus rating for SPE^C is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SPE^C stock?
A: The prediction period for SPE^C is (n+1 year)

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