Modelling A.I. in Economics

SQNS Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares (Forecast)

Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares Research Report

Summary

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We evaluate Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SQNS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SQNS stock.

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. Market Risk

SQNS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SQNS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SQNS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SQNS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SQNS Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SQNS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares

  1. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  2. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.
  3. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
  4. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SQNS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SQNS stock.

Financial State Forecast for SQNS Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Baa2
Operational Risk 7971
Market Risk5385
Technical Analysis4274
Fundamental Analysis7661
Risk Unsystematic7971

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 696 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  2. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  3. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  4. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  5. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  6. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  7. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SQNS stock?
A: SQNS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is SQNS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy SQNS Stock.
Q: Is Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Sequans Communications S.A. American Depositary Shares is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SQNS stock?
A: The consensus rating for SQNS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for SQNS stock?
A: The prediction period for SQNS is (n+3 month)

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