Outlook: iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

## Abstract

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems.(Raza, K., 2017, April. Prediction of Stock Market performance by using machine learning techniques. In 2017 International Conference on Innovations in Electrical Engineering and Computational Technologies (ICIEECT) (pp. 1-1). IEEE.) We evaluate iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the STAR^I stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

## Key Points

2. Investment Risk
3. Prediction Modeling

## STAR^I Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of STAR^I stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of STAR^I stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## STAR^I Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: STAR^I iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock

1. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
2. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
3. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.
4. If changes are made in addition to those changes required by interest rate benchmark reform to the financial asset or financial liability designated in a hedging relationship (as described in paragraphs 5.4.6–5.4.8) or to the designation of the hedging relationship (as required by paragraph 6.9.1), an entity shall first apply the applicable requirements in this Standard to determine if those additional changes result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting. If the additional changes do not result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting, an entity shall amend the formal designation of the hedging relationship as specified in paragraph 6.9.1.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the STAR^I stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

### Financial State Forecast for STAR^I iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 6063
Market Risk3164
Technical Analysis6887
Fundamental Analysis6854
Risk Unsystematic4268

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 866 signals.

## References

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2. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
3. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
4. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can neural networks predict stock market?(ATVI Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
6. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
7. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for STAR^I stock?
A: STAR^I stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Linear Regression
Q: Is STAR^I stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy STAR^I Stock.
Q: Is iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for iStar Inc. Series I Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of STAR^I stock?
A: The consensus rating for STAR^I is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for STAR^I stock?
A: The prediction period for STAR^I is (n+16 weeks)