Outlook: STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

## Abstract

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA.(Mehtab, S. and Sen, J., 2019. A robust predictive model for stock price prediction using deep learning and natural language processing. arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.07700.) We evaluate STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SVY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

## Key Points

1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
2. How do you pick a stock?
3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

## SVY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SVY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SVY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## SVY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SVY STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED

1. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
2. The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.
3. This Standard does not specify a method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. However, an entity shall use a method that captures the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness. Depending on those factors, the method can be a qualitative or a quantitative assessment.
4. Measurement of a financial asset or financial liability and classification of recognised changes in its value are determined by the item's classification and whether the item is part of a designated hedging relationship. Those requirements can create a measurement or recognition inconsistency (sometimes referred to as an 'accounting mismatch') when, for example, in the absence of designation as at fair value through profit or loss, a financial asset would be classified as subsequently measured at fair value through profit or loss and a liability the entity considers related would be subsequently measured at amortised cost (with changes in fair value not recognised). In such circumstances, an entity may conclude that its financial statements would provide more relevant information if both the asset and the liability were measured as at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SVY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

### Financial State Forecast for SVY STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 6875
Market Risk5488
Technical Analysis3250
Fundamental Analysis8040
Risk Unsystematic3756

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 506 signals.

## References

1. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
2. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
3. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
4. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
5. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
6. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SVY stock?
A: SVY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is SVY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SVY Stock.
Q: Is STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for STAVELY MINERALS LIMITED is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SVY stock?
A: The consensus rating for SVY is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SVY stock?
A: The prediction period for SVY is (n+4 weeks)