Modelling A.I. in Economics

TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. (Forecast)

Outlook: Teekay Tankers Ltd. assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of stocks is complicated by the dynamic, complex, and chaotic environment of the stock market. Many studies predict stock price movements using deep learning models. Although the attention mechanism has gained popularity recently in neural machine translation, little focus has been devoted to attention-based deep learning models for stock prediction. (Lee, T.K., Cho, J.H., Kwon, D.S. and Sohn, S.Y., 2019. Global stock market investment strategies based on financial network indicators using machine learning techniques. Expert Systems with Applications, 117, pp.228-242.) We evaluate Teekay Tankers Ltd. prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TNK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TNK stock.

AC Investment Research

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. Is now good time to invest?

TNK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Teekay Tankers Ltd. Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TNK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TNK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TNK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 07 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TNK stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Teekay Tankers Ltd.

  1. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  2. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  3. An entity shall assess whether contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding for the currency in which the financial asset is denominated.
  4. Lifetime expected credit losses are generally expected to be recognised before a financial instrument becomes past due. Typically, credit risk increases significantly before a financial instrument becomes past due or other lagging borrower-specific factors (for example, a modification or restructuring) are observed. Consequently when reasonable and supportable information that is more forward-looking than past due information is available without undue cost or effort, it must be used to assess changes in credit risk.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Teekay Tankers Ltd. assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TNK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TNK stock.

Financial State Forecast for TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Operational Risk 3370
Market Risk3936
Technical Analysis5081
Fundamental Analysis3266
Risk Unsystematic4873

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 651 signals.

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  2. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  3. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  4. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  5. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  6. Swaminathan A, Joachims T. 2015. Batch learning from logged bandit feedback through counterfactual risk minimization. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 16:1731–55
  7. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TNK stock?
A: TNK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is TNK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy TNK Stock.
Q: Is Teekay Tankers Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Teekay Tankers Ltd. is Buy and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TNK stock?
A: The consensus rating for TNK is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for TNK stock?
A: The prediction period for TNK is (n+6 month)

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