Modelling A.I. in Economics

TNX:TSX TRX Gold Corporation (Forecast)

TRX Gold Corporation Research Report

Summary

The stock market is very volatile and non-stationary and generates huge volumes of data in every second. In this article, the existing machine learning algorithms are analyzed for stock market forecasting and also a new pattern-finding algorithm for forecasting stock trend is developed. Three approaches can be used to solve the problem: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and the machine learning. Experimental analysis done in this article shows that the machine learning could be useful for investors to make profitable decisions. We evaluate TRX Gold Corporation prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TNX:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TNX:TSX stock.

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

TNX:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TRX Gold Corporation Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TNX:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TNX:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TNX:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TNX:TSX TRX Gold Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TNX:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for TRX Gold Corporation

  1. Sales that occur for other reasons, such as sales made to manage credit concentration risk (without an increase in the assets' credit risk), may also be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows. In particular, such sales may be consistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if those sales are infrequent (even if significant in value) or insignificant in value both individually and in aggregate (even if frequent). If more than an infrequent number of such sales are made out of a portfolio and those sales are more than insignificant in value (either individually or in aggregate), the entity needs to assess whether and how such sales are consistent with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows. Whether a third party imposes the requirement to sell the financial assets, or that activity is at the entity's discretion, is not relevant to this assessment. An increase in the frequency or value of sales in a particular period is not necessarily inconsistent with an objective to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, if an entity can explain the reasons for those sales and demonstrate why those sales do not reflect a change in the entity's business model. In addition, sales may be consistent with the objective of holding financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows if the sales are made close to the maturity of the financial assets and the proceeds from the sales approximate the collection of the remaining contractual cash flows.
  2. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
  3. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
  4. To be eligible for designation as a hedged item, a risk component must be a separately identifiable component of the financial or the non-financial item, and the changes in the cash flows or the fair value of the item attributable to changes in that risk component must be reliably measurable.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

TRX Gold Corporation assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TNX:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TNX:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for TNX:TSX TRX Gold Corporation Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 5653
Market Risk6133
Technical Analysis7358
Fundamental Analysis7180
Risk Unsystematic3132

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 492 signals.

References

  1. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  2. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  3. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  4. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  5. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  6. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TNX:TSX stock?
A: TNX:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is TNX:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TNX:TSX Stock.
Q: Is TRX Gold Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TRX Gold Corporation is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TNX:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for TNX:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TNX:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for TNX:TSX is (n+3 month)

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