TOP TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares (Forecast)

Outlook: TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators.(Hegazy, O., Soliman, O.S. and Salam, M.A., 2014. A machine learning model for stock market prediction. arXiv preprint arXiv:1402.7351.) We evaluate TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
3. Trading Signals

TOP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TOP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TOP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TOP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TOP TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares

1. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.
3. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
4. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TOP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

TOP TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B3	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B3
Cash Flow	Baa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	B2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 770 signals.

References

1. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
2. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
3. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., When to Sell and When to Hold FTNT Stock. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
6. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
7. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for TOP stock?
A: TOP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is TOP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TOP Stock.
Q: Is TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TOP Financial Group Limited Ordinary Shares is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TOP stock?
A: The consensus rating for TOP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for TOP stock?
A: The prediction period for TOP is (n+1 year)

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