Modelling A.I. in Economics

UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

It has never been easy to invest in a set of assets, the abnormally of financial market does not allow simple models to predict future asset values with higher accuracy. Machine learning, which consist of making computers perform tasks that normally requiring human intelligence is currently the dominant trend in scientific research. This article aims to build a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and especially Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) to predict future stock market values.(Beg, M.O., Awan, M.N. and Ali, S.S., 2019. Algorithmic machine learning for prediction of stock prices. In FinTech as a Disruptive Technology for Financial Institutions (pp. 142-169). IGI Global.) We evaluate Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UCTT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

UCTT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of UCTT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UCTT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

UCTT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock

  1. A contractually specified inflation risk component of the cash flows of a recognised inflation-linked bond (assuming that there is no requirement to account for an embedded derivative separately) is separately identifiable and reliably measurable, as long as other cash flows of the instrument are not affected by the inflation risk component.
  2. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
  3. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
  4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UCTT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for UCTT Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 4858
Market Risk4060
Technical Analysis3872
Fundamental Analysis8664
Risk Unsystematic5789

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 609 signals.

References

  1. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  2. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  3. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  4. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA
  5. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  6. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for UCTT stock?
A: UCTT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is UCTT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy UCTT Stock.
Q: Is Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ultra Clean Holdings Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UCTT stock?
A: The consensus rating for UCTT is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for UCTT stock?
A: The prediction period for UCTT is (n+3 month)

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