VLT Invesco High Income Trust II (Forecast)

Outlook: Invesco High Income Trust II assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Investors raise profit from stock market by maximising gains and minimising loses. The profit is difficult to raise because of the volatile nature of stock market prices. Predictive modelling allows investors to make informed decisions. (Yuan, X., Yuan, J., Jiang, T. and Ain, Q.U., 2020. Integrated long-term stock selection models based on feature selection and machine learning algorithms for China stock market. IEEE Access, 8, pp.22672-22685.) We evaluate Invesco High Income Trust II prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. Prediction Modeling
3. Can statistics predict the future?

VLT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Invesco High Income Trust II Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of VLT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VLT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VLT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VLT Invesco High Income Trust II
Time series to forecast n: 11 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Invesco High Income Trust II

1. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.
2. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
3. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
4. For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Invesco High Income Trust II assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for VLT Invesco High Income Trust II Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	B1
Operational Risk	34	58
Market Risk	70	78
Technical Analysis	84	44
Fundamental Analysis	90	33
Risk Unsystematic	72	64

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 765 signals.

References

1. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
2. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
4. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
5. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
7. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VLT stock?
A: VLT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is VLT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VLT Stock.
Q: Is Invesco High Income Trust II stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Invesco High Income Trust II is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VLT stock?
A: The consensus rating for VLT is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for VLT stock?
A: The prediction period for VLT is (n+16 weeks)

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