Modelling A.I. in Economics

VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of stock market movement is extremely difficult due to its high mutable nature. The rapid ups and downs occur in stock market because of impact from foreign commodities like emotional behavior of investors, political, psychological and economical factors. Continuous unsettlement in the stock market is major reason why investors sell out at the wrong time and often fail to gain the benefit. While investing in stock market investors must not forget the risk of reward rule and expose their holdings to greater risks. Although it is not possible predict stock market movement with full accuracy, losses from selling stocks at wrong time and its impacts can be reduce to greater extent using prediction of stock market movement based on analysis of historical data. (Henrique, B.M., Sobreiro, V.A. and Kimura, H., 2019. Literature review: Machine learning techniques applied to financial market prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 124, pp.226-251.) We evaluate Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VNDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. Decision Making

VNDA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of VNDA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VNDA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VNDA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock

  1. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  2. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
  3. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  4. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VNDA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Financial State Forecast for VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Ba1
Operational Risk 6741
Market Risk7671
Technical Analysis7474
Fundamental Analysis6977
Risk Unsystematic5690

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 821 signals.

References

  1. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  2. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  3. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  4. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  5. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., How do you decide buy or sell a stock?(SAIC Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  6. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  7. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for VNDA stock?
A: VNDA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is VNDA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold VNDA Stock.
Q: Is Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VNDA stock?
A: The consensus rating for VNDA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for VNDA stock?
A: The prediction period for VNDA is (n+1 year)

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