Modelling A.I. in Economics

WMA WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED (Forecast)

Outlook: WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)

Abstract

Security indices are the main tools for evaluation of the status of financial markets. Moreover, a main part of the economy of any country is constituted of investment in stock markets. Therefore, investors could maximize the return of investment if it becomes possible to predict the future trend of stock market with appropriate methods. The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of financial series make their prediction complicated. This study seeks to evaluate the prediction power of machine-learning models in a stock market. (Yu, P. and Yan, X., 2020. Stock price prediction based on deep neural networks. Neural Computing and Applications, 32(6), pp.1609-1628.) We evaluate WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the WMA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Can stock prices be predicted?
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

WMA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of WMA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of WMA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

WMA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: WMA WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 17 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED

  1. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
  2. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.
  3. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  4. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the WMA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Financial State Forecast for WMA WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B1
Operational Risk 8632
Market Risk6867
Technical Analysis8659
Fundamental Analysis5652
Risk Unsystematic5289

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 738 signals.

References

  1. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  2. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  3. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  4. Lai TL, Robbins H. 1985. Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules. Adv. Appl. Math. 6:4–22
  5. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  6. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for WMA stock?
A: WMA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is WMA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes WMA Stock.
Q: Is WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WAM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS LIMITED is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of WMA stock?
A: The consensus rating for WMA is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for WMA stock?
A: The prediction period for WMA is (n+16 weeks)

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