XRTX XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : SellHold
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. (Anand, C., 2021. Comparison of stock price prediction models using pre-trained neural networks. Journal of Ubiquitous Computing and Communication Technologies (UCCT), 3(02), pp.122-134.) We evaluate XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XRTX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

XRTX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of XRTX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of XRTX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

XRTX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: XRTX XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock

1. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.
2. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
3. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
4. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XRTX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellHold

Financial State Forecast for XRTX XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	31	54
Market Risk	81	61
Technical Analysis	68	43
Fundamental Analysis	59	68
Risk Unsystematic	74	75

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 540 signals.

References

1. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
2. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
3. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
4. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
5. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
6. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
7. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for XRTX stock?
A: XRTX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is XRTX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellHold XRTX Stock.
Q: Is XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for XORTX Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is SellHold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of XRTX stock?
A: The consensus rating for XRTX is SellHold.
Q: What is the prediction period for XRTX stock?
A: The prediction period for XRTX is (n+3 month)

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