Modelling A.I. in Economics

XXII 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock

22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Abstract

Understanding the pattern of financial activities and predicting their development and changes are research hotspots in academic and financial circles. Because financial data contain complex, incomplete and fuzzy information, predicting their development trends is an extremely difficult challenge. Fluctuations in financial data depend on a myriad of correlated constantly changing factors. Therefore, predicting and analysing financial data are a nonlinear, time-dependent problem. Deep neural networks (DNNs) combine the advantages of deep learning (DL) and neural networks and can be used to solve nonlinear problems more satisfactorily compared to conventional machine learning algorithms.(Chen, K., Zhou, Y. and Dai, F., 2015, October. A LSTM-based method for stock returns prediction: A case study of China stock market. In 2015 IEEE international conference on big data (big data) (pp. 2823-2824). IEEE.) We evaluate 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XXII stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy XXII stock.

Key Points

  1. Investment Risk
  2. Trading Signals
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

XXII Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of XXII stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Independent T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of XXII stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

XXII Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: XXII 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 04 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy XXII stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock

  1. A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
  2. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  3. An entity that first applies these amendments after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.32–7.2.34. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. If subsequently an entity reasonably expects that the alternative benchmark rate will not be separately identifiable within 24 months from the date the entity designated it as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time, the entity shall cease applying the requirement in paragraph 6.9.11 to that alternative benchmark rate and discontinue hedge accounting prospectively from the date of that reassessment for all hedging relationships in which the alternative benchmark rate was designated as a noncontractually specified risk component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XXII stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy XXII stock.

Financial State Forecast for XXII 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Operational Risk 7974
Market Risk3987
Technical Analysis7550
Fundamental Analysis8390
Risk Unsystematic3681

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 668 signals.

References

  1. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
  2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  3. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  4. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  6. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for XXII stock?
A: XXII stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is XXII stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy XXII Stock.
Q: Is 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for 22nd Century Group Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of XXII stock?
A: The consensus rating for XXII is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for XXII stock?
A: The prediction period for XXII is (n+4 weeks)



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