AC Investment Research

ACP AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED Research Report

Outlook: AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 09 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ACP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

ACP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ACP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ACP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ACP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ACP AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 09 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED

  1. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
  2. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
  3. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ACP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

ACP AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2B3
Balance SheetB2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa3Ba2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 807 signals.

References

  1. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  2. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  3. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  4. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  5. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  6. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  7. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ACP stock?
A: ACP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is ACP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ACP Stock.
Q: Is AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AUDALIA RESOURCES LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ACP stock?
A: The consensus rating for ACP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ACP stock?
A: The prediction period for ACP is (n+6 month)

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