AC Investment Research

AU1 THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD Research Report

Outlook: THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 25 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AU1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. Game Theory

AU1 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AU1 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AU1 stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AU1 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AU1 THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD
Time series to forecast n: 25 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD

  1. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
  2. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.
  3. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
  4. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AU1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

AU1 THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetB2B2
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 846 signals.

References

  1. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  2. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  3. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  4. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  5. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  6. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is TPL a Buy?. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  7. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AU1 stock?
A: AU1 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is AU1 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AU1 Stock.
Q: Is THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for THE AGENCY GROUP AUSTRALIA LTD is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AU1 stock?
A: The consensus rating for AU1 is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AU1 stock?
A: The prediction period for AU1 is (n+8 weeks)

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