Modelling A.I. in Economics

CBAN Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

With the advent of technological marvels like global digitization, the prediction of the stock market has entered a technologically advanced era, revamping the old model of trading. With the ceaseless increase in market capitalization, stock trading has become a center of investment for many financial investors. Many analysts and researchers have developed tools and techniques that predict stock price movements and help investors in proper decision-making.(Mehtab, S. and Sen, J., 2019. A robust predictive model for stock price prediction using deep learning and natural language processing. arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.07700.) We evaluate Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CBAN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. Stock Rating
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

CBAN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CBAN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBAN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CBAN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CBAN Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 02 Jan 2023 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
  2. Expected credit losses reflect an entity's own expectations of credit losses. However, when considering all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort in estimating expected credit losses, an entity should also consider observable market information about the credit risk of the particular financial instrument or similar financial instruments.
  3. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  4. The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CBAN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

CBAN Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCB3
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa3C
Cash FlowCaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 587 signals.

References

  1. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  2. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  3. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  6. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is TPL a Buy?. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CBAN stock?
A: CBAN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is CBAN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CBAN Stock.
Q: Is Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Colony Bankcorp Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CBAN stock?
A: The consensus rating for CBAN is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CBAN stock?
A: The prediction period for CBAN is (n+1 year)

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