Outlook: Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 04 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the COLL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Decision Making
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

## COLL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of COLL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of COLL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## COLL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 04 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

## IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock

1. Annual Improvements to IFRSs 2010–2012 Cycle, issued in December 2013, amended paragraphs 4.2.1 and 5.7.5 as a consequential amendment derived from the amendment to IFRS 3. An entity shall apply that amendment prospectively to business combinations to which the amendment to IFRS 3 applies.
2. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
3. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
4. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

## Conclusions

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the COLL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

### COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B3
Balance SheetB3Ba2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 525 signals.

## References

1. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
2. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
3. Breiman L. 1996. Bagging predictors. Mach. Learn. 24:123–40
4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
5. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
6. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier
7. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for COLL stock?
A: COLL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is COLL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold COLL Stock.
Q: Is Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of COLL stock?
A: The consensus rating for COLL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for COLL stock?
A: The prediction period for COLL is (n+3 month)