Modelling A.I. in Economics

CRGY Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock

Outlook: Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CRGY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. How do you pick a stock?
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

CRGY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CRGY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CRGY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CRGY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CRGY Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 19 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock

  1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
  2. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  3. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
  4. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CRGY stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

CRGY Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2B2
Balance SheetCB2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 759 signals.

References

  1. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  2. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  3. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  4. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  6. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CRGY stock?
A: CRGY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is CRGY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CRGY Stock.
Q: Is Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Crescent Energy Company Class A Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CRGY stock?
A: The consensus rating for CRGY is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for CRGY stock?
A: The prediction period for CRGY is (n+3 month)



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