AC Investment Research

FO:TSXV Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. Research Report

Outlook: Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 23 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FO:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

FO:TSXV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of FO:TSXV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Stepwise Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FO:TSXV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FO:TSXV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FO:TSXV Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 23 Jan 2023 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.

  1. A contractual cash flow characteristic does not affect the classification of the financial asset if it could have only a de minimis effect on the contractual cash flows of the financial asset. To make this determination, an entity must consider the possible effect of the contractual cash flow characteristic in each reporting period and cumulatively over the life of the financial instrument. In addition, if a contractual cash flow characteristic could have an effect on the contractual cash flows that is more than de minimis (either in a single reporting period or cumulatively) but that cash flow characteristic is not genuine, it does not affect the classification of a financial asset. A cash flow characteristic is not genuine if it affects the instrument's contractual cash flows only on the occurrence of an event that is extremely rare, highly abnormal and very unlikely to occur.
  2. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.
  3. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
  4. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FO:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

FO:TSXV Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBa3B3
Balance SheetBaa2B2
Leverage RatiosCB3
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 627 signals.

References

  1. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  2. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  3. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  4. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  5. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
  6. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., GXO Options & Futures Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FO:TSXV stock?
A: FO:TSXV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is FO:TSXV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes FO:TSXV Stock.
Q: Is Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FO:TSXV stock?
A: The consensus rating for FO:TSXV is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for FO:TSXV stock?
A: The prediction period for FO:TSXV is (n+4 weeks)

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