HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 27 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Abstract

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HRTG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

HRTG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HRTG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HRTG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HRTG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 27 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock

1. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
2. If the group of items does have offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of sales and expenses denominated in a foreign currency hedged together for foreign currency risk) then an entity shall present the hedging gains or losses in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. Consider, for example, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a net position of foreign currency sales of FC100 and foreign currency expenses of FC80 using a forward exchange contract for FC20. The gain or loss on the forward exchange contract that is reclassified from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss (when the net position affects profit or loss) shall be presented in a separate line item from the hedged sales and expenses. Moreover, if the sales occur in an earlier period than the expenses, the sales revenue is still measured at the spot exchange rate in accordance with IAS 21. The related hedging gain or loss is presented in a separate line item, so that profit or loss reflects the effect of hedging the net position, with a corresponding adjustment to the cash flow hedge reserve. When the hedged expenses affect profit or loss in a later period, the hedging gain or loss previously recognised in the cash flow hedge reserve on the sales is reclassified to profit or loss and presented as a separate line item from those that include the hedged expenses, which are measured at the spot exchange rate in accordance with IAS 21.
3. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
4. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HRTG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

HRTG Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B3	Ba2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	C
Cash Flow	Caa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 505 signals.

References

1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
2. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
3. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
4. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
5. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
7. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HRTG stock?
A: HRTG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is HRTG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell HRTG Stock.
Q: Is Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HRTG stock?
A: The consensus rating for HRTG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for HRTG stock?
A: The prediction period for HRTG is (n+3 month)

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