IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock

Outlook: Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators.(Singh, S., Madan, T.K., Kumar, J. and Singh, A.K., 2019, July. Stock market forecasting using machine learning: Today and tomorrow. In 2019 2nd International Conference on Intelligent Computing, Instrumentation and Control Technologies (ICICICT) (Vol. 1, pp. 738-745). IEEE.) We evaluate Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

1. Why do we need predictive models?
2. Game Theory
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

IEP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of IEP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IEP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IEP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 01 Jan 2023 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock

1. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
3. An entity can rebut this presumption. However, it can do so only when it has reasonable and supportable information available that demonstrates that even if contractual payments become more than 30 days past due, this does not represent a significant increase in the credit risk of a financial instrument. For example when non-payment was an administrative oversight, instead of resulting from financial difficulty of the borrower, or the entity has access to historical evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between significant increases in the risk of a default occurring and financial assets on which payments are more than 30 days past due, but that evidence does identify such a correlation when payments are more than 60 days past due.
4. An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

IEP Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	B2	Ba2
Balance Sheet	Ba2	C
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	B2
Cash Flow	B2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 507 signals.

References

1. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
2. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
3. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
4. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
5. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
6. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
7. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IEP stock?
A: IEP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is IEP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes IEP Stock.
Q: Is Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Icahn Enterprises L.P. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IEP stock?
A: The consensus rating for IEP is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for IEP stock?
A: The prediction period for IEP is (n+8 weeks)

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