AC Investment Research

JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 22 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JEF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. What is prediction model?

JEF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of JEF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JEF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JEF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 22 Jan 2023 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock

  1. Historical information is an important anchor or base from which to measure expected credit losses. However, an entity shall adjust historical data, such as credit loss experience, on the basis of current observable data to reflect the effects of the current conditions and its forecasts of future conditions that did not affect the period on which the historical data is based, and to remove the effects of the conditions in the historical period that are not relevant to the future contractual cash flows. In some cases, the best reasonable and supportable information could be the unadjusted historical information, depending on the nature of the historical information and when it was calculated, compared to circumstances at the reporting date and the characteristics of the financial instrument being considered. Estimates of changes in expected credit losses should reflect, and be directionally consistent with, changes in related observable data from period to period
  2. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  3. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  4. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JEF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Ba3
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 652 signals.

References

  1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Can stock prices be predicted?(SMI Index Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
  2. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  3. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  4. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  5. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  6. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  7. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JEF stock?
A: JEF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is JEF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy JEF Stock.
Q: Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JEF stock?
A: The consensus rating for JEF is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for JEF stock?
A: The prediction period for JEF is (n+6 month)

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