AC Investment Research

JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Outlook: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 25 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Abstract

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JEF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

JEF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of JEF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JEF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JEF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 25 Jan 2023 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock

  1. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
  2. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  3. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JEF stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBa3C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBa3B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 621 signals.

References

  1. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  2. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  3. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  4. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  5. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  7. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JEF stock?
A: JEF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is JEF stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes JEF Stock.
Q: Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JEF stock?
A: The consensus rating for JEF is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for JEF stock?
A: The prediction period for JEF is (n+3 month)

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